Putin's Russia set against regime change in Syria

By Steve Gutterman

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian warnings to the West and its Arab allies to keep their hands off Syria hide a slight chance for compromise on a U.N. resolution aimed at halting bloodshed in the country, but a demand for President Bashar al-Assad to step aside could be a deal-breaker.

With Prime Minister Vladimir Putin facing the biggest protests of his 12-year rule and planning to return to the Kremlin in a March presidential vote, Russia wants to avoid stamping its approval on any regime change engineered from outside.

Moscow has been busy drawing "red lines" as it comes under pressure to stop shielding its old ally Assad and to use its power as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member to push Damascus into ending the crackdown which has killed thousands of civilians.

Russia has erected a wall of noise, emphasizing it opposes sanctions against Syria - a major customer for its arms - and making clear it will block any attempt for the Council to endorse military intervention.

The latest test of Russia's resolve, a new draft resolution backed by Western and Arab powers led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, does not call for new sanctions or threaten military action - but it does call for Assad to cede power.

The draft says the Council supports an Arab League plan "to facilitate a political transition leading to a democratic, plural political system ... including through the transfer of power from the President and transparent and fair elections."

Moscow could potentially be appeased if the draft's supporters remove the specific reference to the transfer of power by Assad or add a clause ruling out military intervention.

However, it may also demand a clear statement that Assad's more violent opponents share blame for the bloodshed. Russia would also be pleased by the removal of a clause calling for "further measures" if Syria does not comply swiftly, wording that to Moscow smacks of sanctions.

Gennady Gatilov, a deputy foreign minister, said on Friday that Russia would not support a demand for Assad's resignation and warned that a rushed vote would be doomed to failure, indicating Moscow could veto the draft in its current form.

Putin has said little publicly on Syria for months, letting diplomats do the talking, and President Dmitry Medvedev is formally responsible for foreign policy.

But Putin, who is expected to win a six-year Kremlin term despite a drop in popularity from previous highs, is widely believed to be guiding Russia's Syria strategy.

Russia and China used a double veto in October to block a Western-backed draft resolution condemning Assad's government for its crackdown on pro-democracy protesters and opponents, which the United Nations says has killed more than 5,000 people.

Western diplomats say Russia might find it difficult to veto a resolution they say is simply intended to provide support for the Arab League, whose efforts to end the Syrian violence have generally been welcomed by Moscow.

REGIME CHANGE

But Sergei Markov, a university vice president and former lawmaker with Putin's party, predicted Russia would also veto the new Western-Arab resolution if its call for Assad to give up power remains. "For Russia, this is intervention in domestic politics and part of a strategy of regime change," he said.

Russia has adamantly warned the West it would not allow a repeat in Syria of last year's events in Libya, where NATO military intervention helped rebels to drive longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi from power.

Moscow had let the NATO air operation go ahead by abstaining in the U.N. vote that authorized it, but then accused the alliance of overstepping its mandate to protect civilians.

Putin has angrily likened the Libyan resolution to "medieval calls for crusades," and last month suggested Gaddafi was hounded to his death with the help of NATO special forces and U.S. pilotless drones.

Russia has plenty of pragmatic reasons to resist political change in Syria, one of Moscow's strongest footholds in the Middle East since the Soviet era. Syria has been a major client for Russian arms sales and hosts a naval maintenance facility on its Mediterranean coast that is the only base outside the former Soviet Union for Russia's shrunken navy.

More importantly, analysts say, Putin needs to be seen to be standing up to the West and making clear that the internal affairs of sovereign states, including Russia, are off-limits to foreign interference.

The call for Assad to step aside is particularly objectionable for a leader who, since coming to power in 2000, has answered U.S. and European charges that he has rolled back democracy with accusations of Western meddling and told his citizens to guard against efforts to foment revolution in Russia.

PUTIN'S POLITICS

"For Putin, the language is unacceptable, because it sets a precedent," said Vladimir Frolov, president of LEFF Group, a Moscow-based government relations firm.

To many Russians, he said, "Putin would look inconsistent, weak and stupid if he were to authorize the Foreign Ministry to support that. He's been saying the opposite to his supporters on the stump."

Putin has turned to anti-Western rhetoric repeatedly during his campaign for the March 4 vote.

Facing criticism over a December parliamentary vote that many Russians suspect was rigged to favor the ruling party, Putin accused the United States of stirring up a persistent street protest movement that have undermined his authority.

He told students in Siberia on Wednesday that the United States "wants to control everything" and seeks to make other countries its "vassals," not allies.

Russia's warning on Friday indicated that it will seek to remove the reference to the transfer of power. But its insistence that details of a political settlement be worked out in talks seemed to leave little room for compromise.

Russia might be more pliable on other aspects of a resolution if it clearly rules out military intervention, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

But he said Western and Arab states were unlikely to put recourse to the use of force entirely out of reach or bend far enough on the call for Assad to give up power to satisfy Moscow.

With Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar determined to get Assad out of power and Russia opposed, he said, "I cannot really see some resolution that could be agreed by all."

"This is not Libya, it's a completely different situation."

(editing by David Stamp)

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Julianne Moore's "Game Change" as Sarah Palin

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota

Cast members Ed Harris (L), Julianne Moore and Woody Harrelson attend the panel for the HBO television film ''Game Change'' at the Television Critics Association winter press tour in Pasadena, California January 13, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

By Piya Sinha-Roy

LOS ANGELES | Fri Jan 13, 2012 6:28pm EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Americans may be gearing up for the 2012 presidential elections, but HBO is revisiting the drama of the 2008 race to the White House in a TV film about Sarah Palin and John McCain.

"Game Change," starring Julianne Moore as Palin and Ed Harris as McCain, is based on the 2010 book by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin that documented the behind-the-scenes action of the presidential campaign four years ago.

But the new film, which will premier on March 10, focuses on the rise of Palin as McCain's 2008 Republican Party running mate.

"We felt that story of Sarah Palin is truly one of the great American political stories of our time," writer Danny Strong told television reporters on Friday.

Moore said that she spent hours working with a vocal coach to master Palin's "idiosyncratic way of speaking" as well as reading Palin's book and watching her TV reality show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska."

"It's a daunting task to play somebody who's not only a living figure but also hugely well known. So for me, the most important thing was accuracy. We're all very familiar with her and those iconic moments four years ago," said Moore, who starred in movie drama "The Hours" and "The Kids Are Alright".

Strong said he was given interviews with everyone he wrote into the film. Except for Palin. Instead, he used the former Alaska governor's own book "Going Rogue" as one of his main sources.

"Her (Palin's) situation was an extraordinary one. She was someone who was involved in state politics and suddenly thrust into international politics, and clearly wasn't prepared," said Moore.

"She was so incredibly charismatic and so unbelievably able to communicate, a true populist," she said.

"Saturday Night Live" actress Tina Fey, whose Palin impersonations became one of the highlights of the 2008 presidential campaign, will also appear in "Game Change", which incorporates news footage into the film .

"I really looked forward to the moment where Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin, would be watching Tina Fey as Sarah Palin. I thought that would be interesting to the story," said director Jay Roach.

Harris, who researched McCain in-depth before portraying him, said his respect for the Arizona Senator deepened.

"He's a man of commended sense of honor and duty, and when he decided to go into politics, by his own admission, his ambition and his ego were constantly in conflict with his sense of honor and duty and patriotism," the "Beautiful Mind" actor said.

Palin, 47, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, ended months of speculation last October by announcing she would not seek a presidential run in 2012.

(Reporting By Piya Sinha-Roy; Editing by Jill Serjeant)

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Russia's Putin offers small change demonstrators

1 out of 6. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin monitored during a question and answer session transmitted on TV in Moscow 15 December 2011.
IMG credit: Reuters/Alexsey Druginyn/RIA Novosti/pool
By Timothy heritage and Steve Gutterman
MOSCOW | Thu 15 December 2011 5: 48 pm EST
Moscow (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin offered something its close facilitate political control of Russian policy in token concessions to demonstrators, beating of the largest demonstrations turn out to be, as he does that 12 years ago took over paid.
In a 4-1/2 hour call - in question and answer show that was live broadcast in Russia and to rebuild support as he prepares, the Presidency, which has long-standing Prime Minister is trying, as a sensible, balanced national leader to present free, can that his people should.
But many Russians in the social network Twitter suggested that his efforts failed say the 59-year-old former spy three months before the presidential elections was, that he hopes to win.
10 Putin break its silence on rallies of tens of thousands of people on December praise with proposals, some of the protesters complaints of electoral fraud and demanding a new election were paid to show up mixed.
"I hit people on the TV screens... saw young people, actively and with positions, which they clearly expressing", Putin said. "This makes me happy, and if that is the result of the Putin regime, which well - there is nothing bad about it."
"they make at least some money," he said, of course, that he thought had the paymaster. Putin has proposed in the past, the ridicule of the opponents, protests had stirred the United States and it had funded foreign States.
Putin, 59, said that first he thought the white bands of demonstrators as a sign of dissent held were part of an AIDS campaign, and he had them incorrectly for condoms.
A manipulated photo was the round on the Internet, with Putin wearing a condom on his chest instead of a medal soon do.
Dressed in a suit and tie at the large desk as he took questions by phone or by a studio audience, and sometimes via video links with cities of the huge country it less well than in previous years.
Putin, Behauend the possibility of changes in a tightly controlled political system suggested that legislation could be amended, can be registered to small opposition parties.
One of the most important acts of Putin's after the takeover in 1999 was elected governors in regions of Russia and its own representatives, remove restore strong Kremlin control send. This said he drove from danger, break up the largest country in the world.
Putin suggested reintroduction of direct elections, but only after the President approved candidates proposed by party-an idea not likely to win support from critics.
"We can move in this direction," he said.
Putin has no indication that he met the protesters demands such as dismissal of Central Election Commission Chief and rerunning the election of Putin's Party United Russia returned would respond with a reduced majority.
He seems intent instead on horseback, the protests and hope that they fade, although another day is scheduled on the 24th December protests of the opposition.
"This is it." It's the end. Putin is completely out of touch. And this is increasingly obvious to everyone. "You had to think hard to insult people like this," a person who identifies as Oleg Kozyrev wrote.
A 21-year-old lawyer, who gave his name only as Yevgeny in the city of Ekaterinburg said: "he doesn't even show interest to what people were saying..." "Aliens have nothing to do with earthlings."
PUTIN THOUGHT THAT DEMONSTRANTEN HAD CONDOMS
Many of the people to the collections of alleged electoral fraud are young professionals in major cities that have answered online calls to protest and the political system opens up a liberal opposition reflect their views to contain.
Some of their claims were supported by international vote monitors, who said that the December 4 election was slanted in favor of Putin's Party United Russia, although it only one almost gained majority in the House of Commons of the Parliament.
A message from Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev saw many Russians on 24 September, which they planned jobs as a sign swap, the everything was cooked between them with no respect for democracy. Putin confirmed on Thursday that he wanted to Medvedev leading after the March election.
Putin tries, democratic and unconcerned about the protests by saying that they were "absolutely normal.", as long as everyone in the framework of the law is
"In my view, the outcome of the election undoubtedly reflects public opinion in the country," he said, a clear there would be no election rerun.
But at another point, he turned the journalist hosts the call-in and said: "I had enough of these questions about the election."
IMAGE PROBLEMS
Russia-based economist, said Putin had considerably harder than in previous years continue to operate its credibility and doubted that he had gained no new support in his performance.
"It is not fresh voices win." "He did not say anything, what the voices of the other set (the opponent) to win - he could have used this great event to promote its assessment", Alexey Bachurin said the Renaissance Capital Investment Bank,.
Putin has used the annual call-in he the last kept decade his image as to Polish up a strong leader with a detailed knowledge of the country and of the entire population. Thursday at the show was the longest yet, beating last year by five minutes.
As always there were such as health, pensions and housing, and Putin many questions on social issues suggested that he the individual leaders to unite and maintaining stability in the world largest energy producer was.
So often in the past he had strong words for the West and in particular former cold war foe the United States.
"The United States needs no ally, it needs vassals," he said.
He defended his economic record, say that some 2008 / 09 was "remarkable and useful" achievements such as poverty, despite the global economic crisis.
He hinted that former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, the foreign investors and many young professionals is held high after falling out with the Kremlin Government could return in September.
"Such people had to and need for Governments in the past and future", he said the Kudrin, has recently spoken form a political party and suggested that he could join protests.
(Reporting by Timothy heritage;) (Editing by Douglas Busvine)

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